ABNT20 KNHC 101736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a well-defined low pressure area located about
100 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Only a small increase in
the organization could lead to the formation of a tropical
depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo Verde
Islands tonight and on Monday. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday across
the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so, environmental conditions appear very conducive for later
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic. Some gradual development is possible during the middle
part of this week while the system moves northward over the central
Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 111239 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Corrected to fix a typo and include mention of gale warnings for
non-tropical area of low pressure south-southeast of Nova Scotia.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted and continues to
show signs of organization with a well-defined area of low pressure
located just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. If these
structural trends continue, the system is likely to become a
tropical depression or storm, possibly as soon as later this
morning. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
continue today across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development over the next couple of days, the system
is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
A weak trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic is
only producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Significant development of this system is becoming unlikely over
the next few days as the system drifts generally northward,
remaining over the central Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few
hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. While
current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system is limited,
this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream
where some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the
next day or two. By the middle of this week, the system is expected
to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances for further
tropical development. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather
Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 121141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center. Some
limited tropical or subtropical development is possible over the
next day or so as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters
of the Gulf Stream. The system is expected to move northward over
cooler waters by Wednesday, ending its chances for tropical
development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

North-Central Gulf:
A surface trough near the coast of Louisiana is producing a broad
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While development
of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland later
today, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding across
portions of the northern Gulf coast over the next day or so. For
more information on the rainfall hazards related to this system,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on
Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 131131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the
Yucatan Peninsula today with no significant increase in
organization. Some development of this system is possible after it
emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the
system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles
southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is still producing showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the southwest of the center. However, the
system is now moving northward over cooler water, and the chances of
tropical or subtropical development are diminishing.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 141139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or two, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. The system is
expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas
by late Friday, ending its chances of tropical cyclone formation.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along
portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next
few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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ABNT20 KNHC 171131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, north of the Lesser Antilles.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles off the
coast of North Carolina is producing limited showers and
thunderstorms well to the east of the center. Development, if any,
of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so
while it drifts generally eastward. The opportunity for development
should end on Monday when environmental upper-level wind conditions
are expected to become unfavorable.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the middle to latter portion of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to
20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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ABNT20 KNHC 181131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located a little over 100 miles north-northeast of Grand Turk
Island.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of the
week. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at
about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the
vicinity of the Leeward Islands toward the end of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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ABNT20 KNHC 182338
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located near the Southeast Bahamas.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week.
This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20
mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity
of the Leeward Islands on Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just off the coast of Africa is producing a
persistent cluster of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slight development of this system is possible over the next day or
two as it moves westward at around 15 mph. On Thursday, this system
should reach a less favorable environment, which should reduce its
chances for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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ABNT20 KNHC 191146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located a couple hundred miles to the northeast of the
Southeast Bahamas.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of
the week or this weekend. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph and approach the vicinity of the
Leeward Islands on Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles to the southeast
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
generally favorable for additional development over the next couple
of days as the system moves westward at around 15 mph. Towards the
end of this week, this system could encounter a less favorable
environment, limiting its development chances after that time.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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ABNT20 KNHC 201144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week or
over the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
A tropical wave located to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable
for additional development over the next day or so while the system
moves westward at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical
depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky
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ABNT20 KNHC 211154
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands has
changed little over the past several hours. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it
moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands show
some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or
so while the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph, and
a short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing limited showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development
while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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ABNT20 KNHC 221144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form
this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become
less organized overnight. While there is still some chance that a
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or
so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive
environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more
favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores
has weakened overnight, and no development is expected while it
drifts northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 221751
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a trough of low pressure located
about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the
southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required on
Saturday. For additional information, including gale warnings,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain
disorganized. While there is still some chance that a short-lived
tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system
is expected to move through a less conducive environment into
Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable
environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches
the Windward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake
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