1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1972

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 17 10:48:41 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 171048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171048=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-171215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1972
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0548 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

    Areas affected...South-central/southeast ND into northeast SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597...

    Valid 171048Z - 171215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for localized strong to severe gusts may
    continue through dawn.

    DISCUSSION...A bowing MCS has evolved across south-central ND into north-central SD. While this MCS appears relatively well organized,
    recent observed wind gusts have generally been subsevere,
    potentially due to relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions
    and the lack of a stronger cold pool. The well defined MCV
    associated with this system, favorable downstream buoyancy (with
    MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), and a modest southeasterly low-level jet
    should help to maintain this MCS as it moves northeastward through
    dawn. Strong to locally severe gusts and perhaps isolated hail may
    still accompany this MCS, especially where preceding storms get
    absorbed into the primary convective line.=20

    The need for eventual downstream watch issuance is uncertain, given
    the relative lack of severe gusts thus far, but trends will continue
    to be monitored for an uptick in severe-wind potential.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 08/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Tin67ZRdhOSaEEFm5JOdbfZKfKtdIGTK1kqluJKpj2DLOVUFPeTpu-O-uMtkFTF2dEntY94A= Uy20vywopvVsIv0ndk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46690087 46800119 47080087 47140023 47219933 46959825
    46429759 45969747 44829775 44429819 44209957 45899985
    46310004 46690087=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)