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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1979

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 17 22:29:06 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 172228
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172228=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-172330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1979
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0528 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

    Areas affected...portions of the northeast into the Mid Atlantic.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 172228Z - 172330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong storms will pose a risk for
    isolated damaging gusts this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Across portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic,
    several clusters of more intense afternoon convection have gradually
    evolved ahead of a cold front. A very moist air mass (dewpoints in
    the low to mid 70s F) is in place with strong diurnal heating.
    Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, this is supporting 1000-2000
    J/kg of MLCAPE. With the environment supportive of strong updrafts
    with near 2 inch PWAT content, isolated damaging gusts (peaking
    40-50 kt) are possible through the next couple of hours with these
    storm clusters.=20

    While the background vertical shear is not overly strong, slight
    enhancement of 3-6 km flow to near 30 kt has been noted from the LWX
    and OKX VADs. This could support some loose storm organization, and
    locally greater damaging gust potential with the more linear
    clusters, as has been noted upstream of DC and Baltimore Metros.
    These storm clusters will continue southeast at 20-25 kt over
    populated areas of the I-95 corridor from Long Island southward
    through the next 1-2 hours. Widespread severe weather is not
    anticipated, but isolated strong gusts and tree damage remain
    possible.

    ..Lyons/Smith.. 08/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5O2vBfVcOK6800vjUqXQeHG8RYt9GnigFDDO4y5yvDnaOjuWjH15E8Q8rZroE2v9RRfjHKXOm= ux02RdhY2jJrBug73c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38767829 39337743 40297649 40817448 40847384 40667365
    40407397 39667429 39057478 38707525 38507564 38527671
    38537797 38767829=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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