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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1994

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 19 18:59:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 191858
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191858=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-192100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1994
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

    Areas affected...Central/eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191858Z - 192100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms may try to organize along/near an
    outflow boundary in eastern Kansas/northern Oklahoma. Strong to
    marginally severe winds may produce wind damage. A watch is not
    anticipated this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Weak ascent from an MCV and a surface boundary have
    contributed to the development of a cluster of storms near I-70
    west of Topeka. This cluster has already produced wind damage. While
    this cluster has generally moved southeast, the airmass with
    eastward extent has been cooled/stabilized by another decaying MCV
    in southwest Missouri. That said, some airmass recovery in the
    immediate wake of the outflow boundary is occurring in southeast
    Kansas. The greatest concentration for storms will likely exist
    near/along this outflow boundary through the afternoon. This
    boundary is moving westward, which may hinder organization
    potential. Other isolated storms may also develop just ahead of the
    weak MCV in central Kansas. Mid-level lapse rates are slightly
    steeper with northward/westward extent. A few storms could produce
    marginally severe gusts. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging winds
    will be possible given surface temperatures nearing 100 F.

    ..Wendt/Gleason.. 08/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9b5tyhhb61c3XXJswv2ik5VePUV1zmRp2qRQx-53glqz7l6dd2ft9-FNT9d3bz-99x9vyFE87= DNT8TK2RpOew-m77ys$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 38679615 37369539 36669490 36449495 36179548 36029601
    36029638 35949710 35969725 35989832 36149855 37019871
    38509916 39399854 39629750 39459677 38679615=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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