ACUS11 KWNS 202050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202049=20
MTZ000-202245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Areas affected...Northwestern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 202049Z - 202245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of supercells may produce severe wind gusts and
large hail this afternoon and evening. A watch is not currently
expected, but convective trends will need to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...With upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints against the
northern Rockies, convection has been deepening in north-central
Montana as a shortwave trough moves into the region. Radar imagery
from KTFX shows intensifying storms northwest of Great Falls. With
35-45 kts of effective shear, long hodographs, and 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, a couple of supercells may eventually evolve from this
convection. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, but
large hail will also be possible with the most organized supercells.
The exact timing of greater storm coverage and intensity will depend
on when MLCIN erodes away from the terrain. A watch is not currently
expected, but convective trends will need to monitored this
afternoon.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 08/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6aMSFio-aI_YyGTjwug95JpeXVGkXxIO2ZdiPyXYpa03wF6VeIXoiA5b0yF-BA4W0RydxzrfM= fwF9bUJ3KWAoKZvkD8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...

LAT...LON 47231205 47711250 48611241 49181144 49170994 48980942
48470922 47001002 46511143 47231205=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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