ACUS11 KWNS 212152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212151=20
AZZ000-220015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1998
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Areas affected...portions of central into southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212151Z - 220015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms
today, especially if cold-pool mergers can occur.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are maturing atop and to the south of the
Mogollon Rim given orographic lift and strong surface heating. These
storms continue to propagate south-southwestward and are preceded by
a hot surface airmass (e.g. 100-110 F temperatures). This is
supporting a deep, mixed boundary layer, characterized by
dry-adiabatic low-level lapse rates. 20+ kts of easterly mid-level
flow and accompanying deep-layer speed shear pivoting around an
upper anticyclone will encourage multicellular organization. Given
ample expected evaporative cooling, the stronger downbursts may
support isolated severe gusts, especially if cold pools from
multicellular clusters manage to merge. Nonetheless, the severe gust
threat should be isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently
expected.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Hp94Qnqh0ec1V4JAFcCNNAXoKygeUQH5YhWbDJJXyYc0-nVS5AhXsZvaoZeZ69BQlsFSuzr3= JYhcwjAPBmUe8S23KI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 34051303 34071095 33700961 33120916 32320924 31910961
31671024 31581102 31701181 32061264 32761319 34051303=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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