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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2005

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 22 19:49:46 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 221949
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221949=20
    COZ000-222145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2005
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0249 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

    Areas affected...the Front Range and vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221949Z - 222145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage is forecast after about 21Z,
    with storms moving east/southeast off the higher terrain. Localized
    marginal hail or strong gusts may occur.

    DISCUSSION...Destabilization continues this afternoon in a
    post-frontal regime with areas of heating. North to northeast
    surface winds have brought mid to upper 50s F dewpoints into the
    area, resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Visible satellite imagery
    shows CU fields developing, though partially obscured by mid and
    high level clouds. These clouds are associated with a minor
    disturbance rounding the upper ridge, suggesting some degree of
    ascent aloft.

    As convection over the higher terrain grows later this afternoon,
    modest northwest flow aloft and peak heating should allow for a few
    cells to persist into the plains. Temperatures aloft are not
    particularly cool, nor is shear very strong. As such, marginal hail
    is possible. An eventual aggregation of storms/outflows may develop
    closer to 00Z, with perhaps locally strong to severe gusts. Overall
    coverage and intensity of severe is not expected to necessitate a
    watch.

    ..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9qCM_Xu3Y7ts9UFiRCo8GiECMNm6OnEFMeCrmzsTBRESXTOTDKochfLsbyNfR6BII0uCsfSap= fZx1ZCrND7UYf1OlcU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38650578 39630559 40350524 40360487 40140444 39660428
    39190419 38720433 38350460 38210508 38250548 38650578=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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