ACUS48 KWNS 280851
SWOD48
SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through
next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure
overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much
of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm
development over most locales. However, a couple instances of
surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this
upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as
seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath
deep-layer ascent.

A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday,
with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front
(assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of
surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may
also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible.
Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface
lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the
withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 290932
SWOD48
SPC AC 290930

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another
mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming
week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the
southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day
4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast
Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and
associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development
over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this
point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may
foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is
plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may
develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday)
time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support
greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance
agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the
introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.

..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 300934
SWOD48
SPC AC 300932

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and
eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure
and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central
and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8
(Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the
central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low
development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is
anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range
guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter
space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame.
However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the
surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range
guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for
now.

..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 010839
SWOD48
SPC AC 010837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader
west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing
multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS,
with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most
locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure
surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the
Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range
guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement
of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this
weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear
that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8
period.

..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 020845
SWOD48
SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Multiple mid-level troughs, embedded within a broader northwesterly
flow regime, will progress across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week into early next week. Multiple rounds of surface high
pressure will reinforce a cool, stable airmass across most of the
CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential through the extended forecast
period. Thunderstorms could develop over FL during the Days 4-6
period (Friday-Sunday) as low-level moisture moves ashore. However,
the severe risk appears very low this weekend.

..Squitieri.. 12/02/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 030807
SWOD48
SPC AC 030805

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating
within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level
flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface
high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry
airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development.
One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week,
when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs
will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough
buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe
threat.

..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 040844
SWOD48
SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within
a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime
next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent
appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall
quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8
period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are
possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven
buoyancy may reside.

..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 050909
SWOD48
SPC AC 050908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified
mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across
the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the
northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short
wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing
across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional
surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through
the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not
likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow
emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a
reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and
through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that
boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive
to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 060907
SWOD48
SPC AC 060905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near
and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale
mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from
perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend.
Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be
maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream
troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.

Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to
another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies,
through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week
into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf
boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry
intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist
return flow.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 070850
SWOD48
SPC AC 070848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates
that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of
the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend.
Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the
Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is
not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow
across North America. It still appears that an increasingly
confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging
across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream
troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface
ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard
late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further
impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf.
Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from
the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that
generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.

..Kerr.. 12/07/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 080927
SWOD48
SPC AC 080925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained
near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest
medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude
Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next
weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more
unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms
of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses
south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of
the period.

It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to
modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return
could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of
the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend
into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive
of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface
cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies,
the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of
limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.

..Kerr.. 12/08/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 090929
SWOD48
SPC AC 090927

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave
troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime
across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will
contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther
downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs,
cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and
northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of
the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern
Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.

Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial
southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf
coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the
northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive
surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend.
Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the
weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer
based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to
support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from
southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley.
However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to
remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.

Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it
appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern
mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another
developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing
digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute
to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf
coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still
seems limited at this time.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 100915
SWOD48
SPC AC 100914

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging
short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level
trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this
coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for
significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the
northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime
in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold
surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the
offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.

Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a
bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North
America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among
the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the
upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within
splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies.
After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early
next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that
may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across
and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for
severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally
low through at least this period.

..Kerr.. 12/10/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 110929
SWOD48
SPC AC 110928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified
trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across
the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting
strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early
next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge,
centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken,
but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the
offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf
Basin.

Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more
zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada,
downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but
become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave
developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there
is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return
flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern
Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to
thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through
portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into
Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it
appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and
modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for
severe storms.

..Kerr.. 12/11/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 120921
SWOD48
SPC AC 120919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with
offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This
dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result
in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where
some weak instability may be present.

By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across
Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early
Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model
uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will
still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range
guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather
threat.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 130847
SWOD48
SPC AC 130846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5.
Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on
Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm
and severe weather potential.

The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther
north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak
instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may
create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the
Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger
scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on
Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.

A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not
support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it
would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS
Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to
potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern
Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the
weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal
mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather
threat.

Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of
the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from
Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but
significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level
pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential
low-end threat difficult.

..Bentley.. 12/13/2025

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