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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1210

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 8 23:18:08 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 082318
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082317=20
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-090045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1210
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0617 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

    Areas affected...the Mid Atlantic vicinity

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 392...

    Valid 082317Z - 090045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for a tornado, damaging wind, and hail
    may continue through the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong storms are ongoing this evening
    across much of VA. The environment remains favorably moist and
    MLCAPE is generally in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, though weak
    midlevel lapse rates have tended to limit updraft strength thus far.
    Occasional rotation has been noted with the strongest cells, and
    effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support some supercell
    potential this evening.=20

    Low-level flow is not particularly strong, but effective SRH remains
    locally enhanced near/north of a diffuse surface boundary extending
    from southeast to central VA, where winds are locally backed.
    Supercells near/north of this boundary could still pose some tornado
    threat. Otherwise, locally damaging wind and isolated hail could
    accompany the strongest storms.

    ..Dean.. 06/08/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8V7bXBQP5QPkkZ1kuNqFpODgfk3QZcx_n6c-77GEOQSa5sDEGQHbdruXwUorpXrSU6mdWE7IK= H2Vu-H3wnUngRUxXpk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37977960 39587862 39497749 38937584 37847518 36367516
    36037548 36457844 36757954 37497971 37977960=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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