ACUS11 KWNS 110204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110203=20
TXZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...parts of the south central Texas Rio Grande Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...

Valid 110203Z - 110400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development may continue to intensify and
gradually become better organized, accompanied by increasing
potential for strong to severe surface gust as it approaches the
I-35 corridor of Deep South Texas, including the Greater San Antonio
area through 10 PM-Midnight CDT.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along the leading
edge of consolidating and strengthening convective outflow now east
through south of Ozuna and Del Rio TX, and southwestward into the
higher terrain to the west of the Rio Grande River. 2-hourly
surface pressure rises in excess of 2 mb were evident in 01Z
observations at these sites, with a 3-second peak gust to 57 kt
recently measured at Del Rio.=20=20

It remains unclear if this outflow will be reinforced/overtaken by
the remnants of outflow emanating from a decaying upstream cluster
across the Pecos Valley, which generated a strong surface pressure
perturbation including 2-hourly pressure falls and rises on the
order of 4-5 mb across the Fort Stockton vicinity. However, a very
warm and well-mixed boundary layer near and west of the Rio Grande
River, in advance of the intensifying convection remains
characterized by temperature/dew points spreads on the order of 30
F, with sufficient moisture in the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates to support CAPE up to around 3000 J/kg. This remains
conducive to strong downsbursts, and further cold pool strengthening
across the Rio Grande River, toward the I-35 corridor of Deep South
Texas through 03-05Z, beneath modestly sheared, but weak, westerly
deep-layer mean flow.

..Kerr.. 06/11/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Wy3wS2Sh60Ds4O2pv0ksN0kIRQ8Uh76m3ARzUp426muCvC2JVkCZ7xoOPaQryHVtMP38qPA6= G-TRC6OIv17QVX8vxw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29999980 29819833 28089998 27420192 27770204 28570155
28770054 29670010 29999980=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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