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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1255

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 11 23:16:21 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 112315
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112315=20
    TXZ000-120045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1255
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0615 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

    Areas affected...portions of central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 112315Z - 120045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase over the next several
    hours. Multicells and supercells may develop with a severe hail/wind
    threat, and a tornado is also possible.

    DISCUSSION...Cumulus clouds and thunderstorms are increasing across
    the free-warm sector as the boundary layer destabilizes in the wake
    of an earlier MCS. Surface temperatures are warming into the 80s F
    amid upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints, contributing to 1000-1500
    J/kg MLCAPE. Mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep (i.e. 6
    C/km), and deep-layer shear remains modest. When also factoring in
    overall weak synoptic forcing for ascent, it is unclear how
    widespread and robust thunderstorms will become. However, several
    diffuse mesoscale boundaries do exist, and continued heating along
    these boundaries may support the development of enough robust storms
    to warrant the consideration of a WW issuance. Large hail and severe
    gusts would be the main severe threats, though a tornado could occur
    with a supercells that manages to anchor to a boundary.

    ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/11/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xiitO7cc26SQhjfFevN4To6PQDgX6Ks_hnD2Hg-ZOsQL6_BBz5kqGKOgR1x3iP0LjLt4MfAK= hf4ftM7a_d4WDhSw2E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31300064 31709987 31949846 32059697 31969653 31679630
    31249630 30059642 29649691 29479770 29549862 29879943
    30199996 30540042 31300064=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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