ACUS11 KWNS 122214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122214=20
NMZ000-COZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New
Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122214Z - 130015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional severe gusts and large hail may occur this
afternoon across portions of southeast Colorado and eastern New
Mexico. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convection has developed in weak upslope surface flow
along the lee of the higher terrain across portions of central
Colorado and New Mexico. Strong mixing on the High Plains has
resulted in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles with approximately
1000 J/kg MLCAPE per mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecast
profiles. Generally, low-level and deep-layer shear are marginal for supercells, particularly across northeast New Mexico and southeast
Colorado, and some transient mid-level mesocyclones are apparent on
WSR-88D radar. Some clustering of storms may occur with time given
strong cold pools, and this may result in a risk for severe gusts. Additionally, given the weak low-level shear and low freezing
levels, some marginally severe hail may be possible. Due to the
expected sparse coverage of severe weather, a watch is not
anticipated.

..Supinie/Smith.. 06/12/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4tNmgOE9yWsGugRH3TDVkefJI7BXKmxzD1P6wXzGDGagnxFeAj-mHFAjVUcF7-o95ualn7mC-= _XMRblddpLQ-OhH-nM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 37570523 38560477 38590381 38110350 36160348 34310369
33160418 32870473 32990530 33860555 35790556 37570523=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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