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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1267

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 12 23:10:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 122308
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122308=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-130045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1267
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0608 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast WY/northeast CO into
    western/north-central NE and south-central SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...

    Valid 122308Z - 130045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for primarily large hail and severe gusts will
    continue this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Two clusters of potentially severe storms are ongoing
    as of 23 UTC across WW 410. One is a backbuilding supercell cluster
    near the NE/SD border north of Valentine, NE, in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary surface front. Given the orientation of the
    instability gradient, this cluster may attempt to propagate
    southward with time, with continued backbuilding possible along its
    western flank. Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 2000
    J/kg near/south of the front) and sufficient deep-layer shear will
    continue to support potential for hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch range,
    along with localized severe gusts. Also, while low-level flow is not particularly strong, a tornado cannot be ruled out, given the
    presence of supercell structures in the vicinity of the surface
    boundary.=20

    Farther southwest, more loosely organized convection is ongoing near
    the NE/WY border. Moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to
    support an isolated hail threat in the short term. Consolidating
    outflows may eventually result in an outflow-driven cluster with a
    threat of severe gusts spreading eastward across the NE Panhandle
    later this evening.

    ..Dean.. 06/12/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ckgAUoxJSAdN0G-wTecl43r_lcAsnIFuXN0rFFHLQWLD0RcQuOVhqo_HpGVrrw3piT_TDnCh= FwvkmZu5BhK079fPcY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41970508 42640468 43000225 43400117 43889995 44119924
    43929871 43329896 42479959 41630008 40270183 40360383
    40550415 40780437 41210483 41970508=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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