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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1270

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 13 17:40:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 131739
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131738=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1270
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1238 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

    Areas affected...Central Tennessee and Kentucky...northeastern Mississippi...and northwestern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 131738Z - 131945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase across the
    TN Valley through this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...A few clusters of thunderstorms, and new rapid
    development via visible satellite imagery, are being observed from
    far northeastern MS into middle TN and central KY. This convection
    is blooming in a low to moderately unstable air mass, with surface dewpoints/temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s under a relatively
    cooler pocket of air aloft, east of a mid-level cyclone centered
    near the MO/AR border. Based on the latest VAD profiles around the
    region, mid-level southwesterly flow continues to slowly increase.
    Some organization into line segments will be possible through this
    afternoon given ~35 kt of effective deep layer shear, with
    precipitation loading aiding in a threat of locally damaging wind
    gusts. However, a lack of persistent, stronger mid-level flow later
    today should limit the overall severe weather threat and a weather
    watch is not anticipated at this time.

    ..Barnes/Thompson.. 06/13/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9U2uPfH-r2P4Oj_gLemh2UQuYFRT9wD608UYwhxRweOg_LcTqVIsSaLavSFNZbjkWnxkxMSDK= MU20xqiAQzjqcfkqls$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 34908861 35578828 36098735 38558529 38208444 36598512
    35598591 34618668 33858747 33598794 33438871 33378933
    33498963 33798974 34218958 34908861=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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