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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1273

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 13 18:41:50 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 131841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131841=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-132045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1273
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0141 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

    Areas affected...Far Southeast MT...Eastern WY...Northeast CO...Far
    Southwest SD...NE Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131841Z - 132045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to move off the high terrain
    later this afternoon, continuing as bowing linear segments across
    the central High Plains. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but
    some isolated hail is possible as well.

    DISCUSSION...Regional surface observations show temperatures range
    from the mid 70s across northeastern WY into the upper 70s/low 80s
    across southeast WY, the NE Panhandle, and northeast CO. Dewpoints
    across the region are generally in the upper 50s/low 60s, with
    mesoanalysis indicating that some convective inhibition remains in
    place with these surface conditions. Continued heating is expected
    throughout the afternoon with the modest low-level moisture
    advection helping to offset some of the mixing, keeping dewpoints
    mostly in the 50s. This will likely result in an erosion of the
    remaining convective inhibition over the next several hours.

    Around the same time as this destabilization, thunderstorms
    currently ongoing over the higher terrain are expected to shift
    eastward into the High Plains. Deep mixing across the High Plains,
    steep lapse rates, and relatively weak vertical shear all support
    initial storms growing upscale into clusters through outflow
    interactions, with these clusters then spreading southeastward over
    time. As such, strong gusts are the primary risk, although isolated
    hail is possible with any robust embedded storms, as well as in the early-stage, more cellular development. Convective trends will be
    monitored for possible watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/13/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_wbDLFvPnRB-eLFYxTVO-KbfGaQz73hu8OhlhhbK_DdeW9QX2sfSHdQfs0_KYEPeGk4CB9c87= erYL7VgSf_TwAoyr9A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 39160525 42170617 42820650 43350683 44620701 45190762
    45650689 45630576 45140484 44010382 41170277 39580323
    38830398 39160525=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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