ACUS11 KWNS 132337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132337=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-140030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico...the western Texas Panhandle...and Texas South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 132337Z - 140030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of multicell storms may produce severe gusts
across parts of eastern New Mexico, the western Texas Panhandle, and
Texas South Plains this evening. A watch may be needed to cover this
threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing over eastern New Mexico.
These storms are in an environment characterized by large boundary
layer dewpoint depressions and large DCAPE (1800+ J/kg). Relatively
weak deep layer shear (15-25 kts effective bulk shear) explains the
current clusters of multicells storm mode, and this is expected to
be maintained through the evening. Storms are already producing
strong cold pools given the observations of fine lines on the KFDX
radar. This leads to the primary threat from these storms being
severe gusts. Some hail is also possible given that all the buoyancy
is above the freezing level, though weak deep-layer shear may limit
large hail production. Convective intensity should be maintained
into the evening before gradually waning as storms move to the
southeast into the early overnight period.

..Supinie/Smith.. 06/13/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4jAWr0zIcAbGBTNgT_r6ZpVg_QR-cTUS9a5KAIPSJfbY0yHyp-qhtNPHNdUrYadh37O2K7pCj= zIpzGaHR_BDyymQZXw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35250440 36390357 36500271 36020171 35090103 33680112
32540162 32080273 32450396 33370445 33990451 35250440=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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