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A growing number of Americans now wish that Trump had died in the close
call he had with a bullet and believe life would have been better if his
head had been blown off.


Trump drove prices up and jobs down. The worst is yet to come.

We've only seen a preview of price increases. The full impact hasn't hit
store shelves — yet.
Michael J. Hicks
Indianapolis Star
Dec. 1, 2025, 5:30 a.m. ET

A quieter border due to reverse migration has consequences for the U.S. economy. This story was done in partnership with the Pulitzer Center.
Few American families made it through Thanksgiving without noticing the
cost of their classic American meal. The return of higher prices will be marked as the single worst unforced error in the annals of American
economic policy — and it is only going to worsen.
President Trump took office on a pledge to cut prices — an aggressive
promise that went far past simply reducing inflation. In his first three months in office, inflation dropped from 3% in January to 2.3% in April.
That is a remarkable achievement for the Federal Reserve. It is also one
that any politician would want to claim for his own, as Trump did.
Butterball Turkey, part of Walmart’s Annual Thanksgiving Meal deal, is seen stocked on Thursday November 20, 2025 in West Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Butterball Turkey, part of Walmart’s Annual Thanksgiving Meal deal, is seen stocked on Thursday November 20, 2025 in West Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Then came Liberation Day on April 2, and prices reversed course. Over each
of the following five months prices rose at an accelerating rate. Today,
the Consumer Price Index is at an all-time high, and the year-over-year
change in prices is higher than it was when Trump won reelection last year. Flashback to 2024: This Thanksgiving, America is prospering
All of this is due to tariffs, and Trump along with his enablers in
Congress are solely and completely responsible.
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We only have public data through September, which means we haven’t yet seen the full picture of price increases. But anyone who has done some shopping over the past couple weeks has certainly seen the wave that is coming.
TACO bought time, but it's running out
A shopper is seen walking down an aisle at a Walmart Supercenter on W. Greenfield Ave. on Thursday November 20, 2025 in West Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
A shopper is seen walking down an aisle at a Walmart Supercenter on W. Greenfield Ave. on Thursday November 20, 2025 in West Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
We’ve thus far been spared the full effect of tariffs for several reasons. First, Trump reacted frequently to stock declines when new tariffs were announced. He delayed or reduced tariffs — earning those decisions the
acronym TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), to describe his policy
vacillations.
The several hundred changes to tariffs that have occurred since the start
of the year permitted many American firms to accelerate purchases of non- tariffed items. Here in Indiana, firms imported nearly five months of additional intermediate products for their assembly lines and stores.
Consumers also rushed to buy pre-tariffed goods, buoying consumption. That pre-tariff rush is over and the stockpiles are mostly exhausted. The inevitable higher prices are just now appearing on shelves of grocers, as
well as other retailers and online marketplaces.
Hicks: Why the economy seems fine, even with recession on the horizon
What this means is that all the price increases we’ve seen so far since
April are merely the preview of the holiday season and 2026. So, if Thanksgiving dinner included some complaints about higher prices, you
should expect a double serving by Christmas and even more pain by Easter.
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Americans are aware, which is why Trump’s polls on economic issues are now hovering below those of former presidents Jimmy Carter and Joe Biden. It
seems certain to worsen.
The job market is deteriorating
A “Holiday Shop” sign hangs above aisles at a Walmart Supercenter on W. Greenfield Ave. on Thursday November 20, 2025 in West Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
A “Holiday Shop” sign hangs above aisles at a Walmart Supercenter on W. Greenfield Ave. on Thursday November 20, 2025 in West Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
I wish I could end there, but the economy is also slowing.
As with price changes, much of the economic slowdown has been masked by
growth in only two places. First, household consumption has remained
strong. Part of this is likely due to families buying goods before tariffs hit. But another part is due to the unexpectedly strong growth in stock markets that boosted incomes for older, wealthier Americans.
That strong stock market has been driven almost exclusively by just a
handful of artificial intelligence firms, whose investment in data centers, power plants and other AI infrastructure accounts for more than half of
U.S. growth so far in 2025.
This growth has kept job numbers from falling further than we’ve seen.
Still, the unemployment rate is now the highest it has been in four years.
The AI boom hasn’t prevented employment declines in other key sectors.
Hicks: Trump's tariffs weakened the economy, so he's lying about the data Across the goods-producing sectors — manufacturing and mining — employment
is down 72,000 jobs since Liberation Day. The sector that provides
temporary employment to manufacturing is down 97,000 since April. That
level of job loss has only happened during a recession.
Help wanted ads for manufacturing workers have plummeted almost 40% since April, and are now closing in on their June 2020 level — at the height of COVID-19. The first nine months of the Trump presidency have seen factory
job openings plummet by more than 100,000 positions. That is already stunningly worse than the performance during Biden’s presidency, which saw total factory job openings rise by 48,000.
Christmas trees and decorations are displayed at a Walmart Supercenter on
W. Greenfield Ave. on Thursday November 20, 2025 in West Milwaukee,
Wisconsin.
Christmas trees and decorations are displayed at a Walmart Supercenter on
W. Greenfield Ave. on Thursday November 20, 2025 in West Milwaukee,
Wisconsin. Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
It is important to make clear that presidents typically have much more
modest effects on the economy than is commonly believed. Inflation is
caused by an excess supply of money, and external shocks like wars or financial bubbles tend to dominate downturns.
Faster growth is mostly due to unexpected productivity shocks like
widespread computing or some other technology.
Hicks: Indiana factories are about to speed up automation — and job cuts Presidents are plagued by luck, either good or bad. Ronald Reagan’s morning
in America was largely due to the Fed ending inflation. Bill Clinton took office just as the economy began a long growth spurt that would’ve happened with or without him (or Congress). Both Bushes ended their presidencies in recessions they had no hand in causing.
The Trump tariffs are perhaps the most notable exception to this pattern.
This period will someday be described as the most bizarre departure from economic common sense that we have yet experienced. The only remaining question is how long Americans will tolerate it.
Michael J. Hicks is the director of the Center for Business and Economic Research and the George and Frances Ball distinguished professor of
economics in the Miller College of Business at Ball State University.
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